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“How the Doctor Wind in West Africa is creating another bull market for cocoa prices”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

• Wednesday - January 22, 2025

Just when you might think that prices got high enough and could potentially enter a longer term bear market due to high prices choking off demand and a weak La Niña event occurring, the opposite is happening. New crop problems from a strong Harmattan Wind will now jeopardize the smaller West African cocoa mid-crop which is usually harvested in the spring. The Harmattan is a cool, dry wind that blows from the Sahara Desert to Ghana and Ivory Coast during the winter months, typically from late November to mid-March.

Imagine a powerful wind that sweeps across the desert, carrying massive amounts of dust that can create a thick haze and dramatically change the weather. It is unusual to occur during a weak La Niña event (such as what we have now), but a warm ridge over Europe, combined with climate change and record warm global oceans are contributing to this unusual occurrence of the Harmattan.

Some of the key characteristics of the Harmattan are:

• Originates from the Sahara Desert

• Blows northeast to southwest

• Extremely dry with very low humidity (can drop under 5%)

• Carries fine dust particles that can reduce visibility

   

The Harmattan can make temperatures swing wildly - it might be chilly at 9°C (48°F) in the morning and then heat up to 30°C (86°F) in the afternoon. The wind is so dry that it can make the air feel like a desert, stripping away moisture and creating dusty, hazy conditions. People sometimes call it the "doctor wind" because its dryness can feel refreshing compared to the usual humid tropical air. However, it can also increase fire risks, damage cocoa crops, and even create dust storms.

The Best Weather Spider, shown above, is a proprietary assessment of trade sentiment across seven categories, four of which are related to weather. The “anti-herd mentality” (too many specs longs in the market's open interest) is very bearish (-4). However, the global crop score is at least modestly bullish (+2). The bearish economic score (-3), was due to my ideas of a stronger dollar and potentially poor demand due to high cocoa prices. However, demand is not slackening off. Hence, my Spider may be raised to a bullish to very bullish (+7 to +9). Notice the seasonal tendency below for higher prices through February, as well.

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Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer

Meteorologist/Commodity Trading Advisor

 https://www.bestweatherinc.com